Central bank liquidity management has entered a new norm in double it is worth looking forward to-winfast

Central bank liquidity management has entered a new norm in double down is more worthy of looking forward to central bank liquidity management has entered a new norm in the "double down" – Yan Yue is worth to expect more from January 29th onwards, the central bank in the open market operation will enter the day reverse repurchase mode. Plus standing loan facilities (SLF), middle (MLF), to facilitate lending mortgage Supplemental Loan (PSL), short-term liquidity adjustment tool (SLO) and supporting government bonds and commercial bank bonds in the open market operations and SLO the scope of collateral, the central bank in order to maintain appropriate and sufficient liquidity before and after the Spring Festival, the central bank to use all the tools of monetary policy in addition to RRR cuts abroad, but for the market is expected to drop quasi did not decrease, but will delay some time. In February 2nd, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations in the open market for 14 days and 28 days. 14 days reverse repo restart allows reverse repo operation varieties more abundant, now covering 7 days, 14 days and 28 days 3 operation varieties. The abundance of reverse repo varieties, as well as SLO, SLF, MLF and PSL at any time, constitute the new normal state of liquidity management of the central bank. Through the combination of these tools, the central bank constitutes a short, medium and long-term liquidity delivery system, which ensures the reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the current banking system. We call it a disguised drop. Through the central bank’s efforts, the liquidity tightening situation in the money market earlier this year has been reversed. The Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) overnight interest rate has dropped from 2.0140% in January 21st to 1.9840% in the past day, a daily decline. In addition to the liquidity supplementary tools, the central bank expanded the scope of SLO participation institutions, increased postal savings bank, Ping An Bank, Guangdong Development Bank, Beijing bank, Shanghai bank, Jiangsu bank and Hengfeng bank as SLO dealers. This provides a strong guarantee for the short-term liquidity of these institutions. Although the central bank has resorted to "Eighteen Wu Yi" to ensure a reasonable liquidity adequacy, but the market is expected to reduce the level is still not reduced, but only the time from December of the year postponed to January this year, after the spring festival. The market for RRR there are three main reasons, one is the negative growth in foreign exchange to reduce the money supply, the other is a further expansion of local debt will absorb part of long-term liquidity, the third is MLF tools such as interest rate level is still high, is not conducive to reduce financing costs. In mid January, the central bank convened a commercial bank forum to deploy the liquidity management of the banking system before and after the Spring Festival, and launched a series of specific measures. Central bank research bureau chief economist Ma Jun this evaluation is that the central bank to provide more than 600 billion yuan of medium-term liquidity, there is the meaning of the role of replacement rrr. From the data released by the central bank, we can find that in January, the central bank carried out MLF operation of financial institutions with a total of 862 billion 500 million yuan, of which the period was 3 months, 445 billion 500 million yuan, 6 months, 217 billion 500 million yuan, and 1 years, 199 billion 500 million yuan. Over the same period, the central bank also issued 143 billion 500 million yuan of PSL to three banks. According to this calculation theory

央行流动性管理进入新常态 变相双降更值得期待   央行流动性管理进入新常态   变相“双降”更值得期待   ■阎 岳   从1月29日起,央行在公开市场操作中就进入了天天逆回购模式。再加上常备借贷便利(SLF)、中期借贷便利(MLF)、抵押补充贷款(PSL)、短期流动性调节工具(SLO)以及将政府支持机构债券和商业银行债券纳入公开市场操作和SLO质押品范围,央行为了保持春节前后流动性合理充裕,央行动用了除降息降准外的所有货币政策工具,但市场对于降准的预期并没有降低,只是将时间延后了一些。   2月2日,央行在公开市场进行了14天期和28天期逆回购操作。14天期逆回购的重启让逆回购操作品种更加丰富,目前已经涵盖7天期、14天期和28天期3个操作品种。   逆回购品种的丰富,以及SLO、SLF、MLF和PSL的随时出手,构成了央行流动性管理的新常态。央行通过这些工具的组合,构成了短中长期流动性投放体系,保证了当前银行体系流动性的合理充裕。我们将之称为变相降准。   通过央行的努力,今年年初货币市场出现的流动性趋紧局势已经被扭转过来。上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)隔夜利率已由1月21日2.0140%的阶段高点降至昨日的1.9840%,呈逐日回落状态。   除上述流动性补充工具外,央行还扩大了SLO参与机构范围,增加邮储银行、平安银行、广发银行、北京银行、上海银行、江苏银行和恒丰银行为SLO交易商。此举为这些机构的短期流动性提供了强有力保障。   尽管央行已经使出了“十八般武艺”来保证流动性的合理充裕,但市场对降准的预期仍没有降低,只是将时间从全年的12月份顺延至今年1月份、春节后。   市场期盼降准的原因主要有三个,一个是外汇占款负增长减少了货币供应,另一个是地方债进一步扩容将吸纳部分长期流动性,第三则是MLF等工具的利率水平仍较高,不利于降低企业融资成本。   1月中旬,央行召开商业银行座谈会部署春节前后银行体系流动性管理工作,并推出了一系列具体措施。央行研究局首席经济学家马骏对此的评价是,这次央行提供6000亿元以上的中期流动性,有替代降准作用的含义。   从央行公布的数据我们可以发现,1月份央行对金融机构开展MLF操作共8625亿元,其中期限3个月4455亿元、6个月2175亿元、1年期1995亿元。同期,央行还对三家银行发放PSL共1435亿元。按此计算,央行在1月份投放的中期流动性规模高达10060亿元,几乎相当于降准1个百分点释放的流动性。   此外,为了降低企业融资成本,央行还降低了MLF利率75个基点。我们将之称为变相降息。   当前,金融机构存款准备金率仍处于17%的高位,由于去年定向降准幅度较大,相当部分的金融机构都达不到这个水平。出于防范风险需要,短期内存款准备金率水平不会降到15%以下。也就是说,央行可降准的幅度在2个百分点左右。   在央行已经找到了可以替代降准的中长期流动性供给通道后,降准就升级为“核武器”了。一旦经济金融领域有需要,降准释放的能量将远远超出其释放的资金规模。由于通胀因素的不确定性,降息的空间已经收窄。   降准是一种中长期的政策,在经过了去年疾风骤雨式的下调后,需要密切观察其对实体经济的影响。一旦经济金融领域有迫切需要,降准乃至降息这些大招仍将会快速出手,但当前更值得关注的则是变相降准和变相降息:即通过MLF等工具释放流动性,通过调整这些工具的利率来引导融资成本下降。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: