State Securities four quarter stock index fluctuations in the 2900-3200 point range tencent upd

State Securities: fourth quarter stock index at 2900-3200 rangebound Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money source: China Securities Author: Li Lifeng Wei Xueai Xiong Feng "received" -A shares four autumn winter quarter of the investment strategy, the overseas market: an eventful year. Q4 entered the overseas market still faces many uncertain factors: 1) at the beginning of the October Hungarian EU refugee quotas to hold a referendum on Italy’s reform act of referendum. 2. The fragility of European banks and the focus on the UK’s withdrawal from europe. 3) November 8th U.S. presidential election. Hilary * * * * VS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *. 4) in December 14th, the United States "symbolic" interest rate hike, there will be repeated. Two, liquidity environment: analogy in 2013, hovering in the fork intersection. In contrast with the 2013, after just experienced a round of monetary easing, monetary policy will choose a stage to neutral. 4Q interest rates "dilemma": 1) "the United States in December is expected to raise interest rates, domestic economic stabilization stage, domestic structural bubbles and domestic supply side reforms, restrict the domestic 4Q loose monetary policy; 2) on the other hand, central inflation at around 2%, does not have to tighten the money the environment. Three, the policy environment: structural bubble, real estate regulation into focus. 1) the real estate market and the A stock market has a certain degree of "seesaw effect". If the government to strengthen the regulation and control of real estate, does not rule out the possibility of capital inflows into A shares; if the real estate market, high fever, the marginal capital flows from the A-share market to the real estate market A. Recommendations focus on the late real estate regulatory policy trends. 2) IPO rhythm revealed regulatory attitude, follow-up continued concern. The current issue of new shares, according to the two installment of a single month, each batch of about 10-14 home rhythm issue. Four, chip distribution: "national team" of "capricious"". Agencies accounted for the increase, the national team accounted for increased. Compared to the end of 2015, Q2 institutional investors accounted for significantly improved, 23.2% – 25.6%. Since last year, since the "crash", "national team" holdings of A shares. As of mid 2016, the national team stock market value of 1 trillion and 150 billion, accounting for up to the end of last year, up to 5.9% by 4.2%. Five, earnings and valuation. 1 (economic) L type, A shares overall profit elasticity is not large overall profit elasticity. Due to the macroeconomic trend is expected to maintain the trend of L type, the overall volatility of the overall performance of A shares is not large, to maintain a narrow range in the scope of the class, the overall profitability of the impact on the growth rate of A stock index is limited. On the contrary, the structure is more important. Overall, the profitability of small and medium-sized still far more than the profitability of the motherboard. However, due to the reasons for the base, is expected to Q3, Q4 profit growth will decline slightly. 2) overall, A stock valuation (TTM) in the history of the median level. Taking into account the rapid growth of M1, M2 in recent years, the current A share valuation (TTM) overall level is not expensive. Six, theory相关的主题文章: